Grey nomads still travelling ‘out of season’ in the north-west have been enjoying plenty of good fortune in escaping the worst of cylone season … but that could all be about to change.
The Bureau of Meterorology is today reporting that a trough lies across the inland Pilbara to a tropical low in the north Kimberley.
“The tropical low is likely to track from east to west across the northern Kimberley before moving offshore from the west Kimberley late today or tomorrow,” it says. “There is a high risk of the system developing into a tropical cyclone late tomorrow or during Saturday as it moves west off the Kimberley coast.
The Bureau warns that heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding over northern and eastern parts of the Kimberley. The warning area is likely to extend further west to affect western parts of the Kimberley by this afternoon and northeastern parts of the Pilbara this evening.
Widespread 24 hour rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm are expected through the warning area, with isolated heavier falls likely.
Flood Warnings are current for the Fitzroy, De Grey and Ord Rivers, with a broader Flood Watch current for the Kimberley district. Locations which may be affected include Halls Creek, Kununurra, Wyndham, Cockatoo Island, Fitzroy Crossing, Kalumburu, Kuri Bay, Lake Argyle, Mitchell Plateau, Mount Barnett, Troughton Island and Warmun.
So far, this season, there had been just one cyclone in the Australian region, the Yvette storm that weakened below cyclonic-strength before it made landfall. However, it is still considered fairly early in the season, with February and March often the most active months for cyclones forming near Australia.
Last year though was the quietest in reliable records going back over four decades of the satellite era. In 2015-16 there were just three named storms compared with an average of about 11.
Blair Trewin, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist, told the Sydney Morning Herald that below average cyclone season were fairly typical of El Nino periods when easterly winds tended to weaken or reverse, and storms and other rain shifted eastwards away from Australia.
Nonetheless, not many people would say it has been anything other than a significant wet season so far this year. Towns such as Kununurra had already set January rainfall records – 385mm so far, topping the previous high of 358mm – and it might receive a lot more in the coming days.
· Are you on the Kimberley at the moment? How has the weather been? Have you ever camped your way through a cyclone? Comment below.
