Grey nomads who have had a fair old taste of wet weather over the past few weeks and months will be relieved to hear that the forecast is for below average rainfall for much of eastern Australia, northern Tasmania, and parts of south-west Australia.
In its long-range forecast for May to July, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions for most other areas, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
The Bureau suggests there could be a possible shift to El Niño later this year, although its timing and strength is less certain. Sometimes a weak El Niño can lead to significant impacts on Australia’s rainfall and temperature, while a stronger event may have fewer noticeable impacts.
It looks like being a drier winter in much of the country. PIC: BOM
Historically, El Niño has generally had a drying influence over areas of central and eastern Australia.
Heat-loving grey nomads will also be happy enough to hear that maximum temperatures from May to July are likely to be above average across much of the country.
The Bureau says most of Australia, except for the tropical north, has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (over 50% chance), with the highest chances (over 70% chance) across much of New South Wales, southern Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania, and south-west Western Australia.
And for the brave souls avoiding the crowds and camping through a Tassie winter, the Bureau says there is a 60% chance of unusually high minimum temperatures on the island state.
Large parts of Western Australia, southern parts of South Australia and Victoria, and parts of the New South Wales coast, can also expect higher than usual minimums.
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BOM have an accuracy problem with long range forecasts which I think is around 1 in 17 are right , when you consider a broken clock is right twice a day I’m not sure why they bother . And before anyone gets on their high horse about BOM bashing consider this from their website on the average summer temp 1910 – 1911 , look closely you will see it was a very cold -100 degrees Celsius each day as an average.