There are plenty of grey nomads who have well and truly seen enough rain over the last few weeks, but there is hope ahead for some far drier conditions.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in an El Niño phase, and that often brings drier conditions to central and eastern Australia in winter and spring.
However, Australia’s weather is also shaped by other climate factors, so there are still no guarantees.
History does give some clues though. The last El Niño was a moderate to strong event that developed in spring 2023 and lasted into early 2024. And, although there were other factors at play, that coincided with the August to October period in 2023 being Australia’s driest three-month period on record.
Here comes the sun! Rainy days could be taking a back seat for a while. PIC: Pexels
El Niño though had less influence from late 2023. Storms along the east coast and 4 tropical cyclones brought above average rainfall to widespread areas during the summer months.
The Bureau says its recently-released long-range forecasts indicate that, from July to September:
However, it says it should be noted that these forecasts cannot predict specific events in advance. For example, an east coast low can bring heavy rain in winter.
The Bureau says El Niño events usually last six to 12 months, though in some rare cases, El Niño has persisted for up to two years.
Current forecasts show El Niño conditions are likely to persist well into the latter half of 2026. El Niño events typically peak in summer, before weakening in the first quarter of the calendar year. The influence on Australia’s rainfall patterns typically reduces around early summer.
The Bureau says it is too early to say what summer will be like, but says El Niño can increase the risk of extreme temperature shifts, like heatwaves and hotter days.
It warns that the long-term warming trend has significantly increased the likelihood of warmer than average years. Australia has had 14 of its 15 warmest years on record since the year 2000.
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